Warmth and scared ...
Julia Mamyrbaeva
Strongest floods and typhoons, expanding deserts and conflicts because of the scarcity of fresh water – it is a possible scenario of effects of global climate change. Symptoms of this planetary disease already are visible in many areas: natural disasters are becoming more destructive and increasingly occur. In Kazakhstan, fortunately, the effects of global warming are not so obvious. But in the future climate change will be more dramatic and dangerous to all spheres of life of Kazakhstan’s people. Meanwhile, our country is not quite ready to global metamorphosis …
When will mandarins flower?
In fifty years temperature in Kazakhstan will rise by 2-3 degrees, and this is very significant. The climate becomes more arid, the process of soil degradation and desertification will be more intense - believes the consultant of the Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis of the President Administration Kanat Baigarin, until recently head of the Climate Change Coordination Centre. - I do not want to say that Kazakhstan will become a desert, but could be seriously affected. And all changes will occur very abruptly in our country.
This disappointing forecast relates to the fact that climate change in Kazakhstan is not mitigated by ocean. Thus, if within the past fifty years the world's temperature rose to one degree, in Kazakhstan - to one and a half. It would seem that the warming is not so significant and almost imperceptibly for ordinary people. But in nature similar processes occur over a hundred or even thousands of years. Provoked by the humanity greenhouse effect is already affecting more frequent and powerful shocks.
However, that's not the point. According to Kanat Baigarin, global warming is an environment problem only at five per cent. At eighty per cent this is a problem of the economy and fifteen - politics. The drastic change will affect primarily on agriculture.
If there are subtropical region and as the dream of some experts even so we will grow the mandarins five hundred years later, not before. And before that we are worrying over all the cataclysms of volatility, because plants can not adapt at such speed, - said Kanat Baigarin. - This will be reflected not only in the domestic market of food, but also on state revenues due to a significant reduction in exports of domestic products.
Global warming will strike and at animal industry. Due to more arid climate grassland area will be drastically reduced. The main sector of the Kazakhstan’s economy today – extractive - might suffer too. It is predicted that global warming could reduce the need for fuel. Moreover, developed countries now actively are working on creating alternative energy sources. It is undoubtedly a positive trend for the environment. But Kazakhstan will have to seek alternative sources of income.
But above all, believed in the Climate Change Coordination Centre, we will face with water scarcity. According to Kanat Baigarin, this factor could provoke conflict with neighboring countries. However, now the issue of transboundary waters is highly relevant for Kazakhstan.
- It is anticipated that the first time during the ten-fifteen years the water level in rivers will increase because of melting glaciers, - he says. - But when the glaciers will become poor, it is difficult to say how our neighbors will behave themselves. Therefore, we must address these issues now.
Kioto will help us
Is it possible to prevent negative effects of global warming? Yes, in part. At least in issue regard to preserve the ozone layer, which plays a huge role in the process of climate change, it has been achieved some success. So, now scientists note the reduction of ozone holes.
-It was developed international agreements, protocols, substitution technology of ozone depleting substances by less harmful in this area - explains Kanat Baigarin. – It is established control and accounting for ozone harmful substances in Kazakhstan.
But in the republic no similar substances are produced, that make our task easier. Nevertheless, now great attention is paid to more effective use of ozone-depleting gases. For example, the same freon used in refrigeration facilities can be cleaned and reused. But this effort of our country to prevent the effects of global warming virtually ended.
- There is not a major public policy in this matter - asserts the former head of the Climate Change Coordination Centre. - Moreover, global warming factor is not disregarded in all developed strategies. We are still engaged in the overall process as observers. But government and business circles take an interest in this problem.
It is conducted various studies on climate change. The fact, that signed in 1999 the Kyoto Protocol regulated greenhouse emissions has not yet been ratified, is very illustrative. The acceding to this agreement, countries should gradually reduce harmful emissions, first of all through introduction of new technologies by mining ventures. It also provides a number of accompanying measures, such as extensive landscaping.
By the way, Kazakhstan annually discharges into the atmosphere approximately 250-260 million tons of carbon dioxide. More precisely, methane allocated not only in mining, but also in landfills is included in this figure. "Contribution" of our country to worldwide atmospheric pollution can be evaluated in different ways. On the one hand, due to the closure of many industries harmful emissions decreased one and a half times in comparison with 1992. But can we regard the current level of emissions as low?
- If to compare global indicators, the emissions of Kazakhstan’s industries constitute tenth of a percent. Our country belongs to "top thirty" polluting the atmosphere states in terms of the number of emissions for each resident. And in recalculations for the GDP we are already in the first "ten". This means that our economy is not sufficiently effective - summarizes Kanat Baigarin.
According to his mind, the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol would greatly help the development of domestic energy. Undoubtedly, this step would help in general to improve the ecology of the country. However, for incomprehensible reasons the process of signing of agreements on the reduction of emissions has been delayed indefinitely.
- The Kyoto Protocol provides retooling of production - said the head of ekounion "Tabigat" Mels Eleusizov. - But small businesses do not have the means to do so, for a large it is easier to pay a fine to state and do nothing. At the same time, this agreement involves investment from developed countries for improvement of environmental conditions. But environment do not concern big business …
However, in addition to ratifying the Kyoto agreement Kazakhstan will decide a number of important issues. So as effects of global warming do not catch us by surprise, we must now adapt to possible changes in the economy of our country. And also, to the opinion of Kanat Baigarin, in the minds of Kazakhstan’s people should enter notions such as water and energy conservation. Even if the pessimistic predictions of scientists will frustrate, and global warming will not cause the expected global cataclysms, the energy deficit is unavoidable. So it is better to learn to cherish the natural wealth, yet it exists.
May 16, 2008 |
