China may become the world's greatest emitter of greenhouse gases before the end of 2007, says the International Energy Agency's chief economist. But that, he told New Scientist, is not the most worrying forecast.
"The major issue for me is the long-term prospect. By 2030, emissions from China will be growing twice as fast as emissions from all of the OECD countries combined," Fatih Birol told New Scientist, referring to the world-leading economies that belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Birol's prediction that China may surpass the US this year brings forward the International Energy Agency's 2006 prediction that the Asian giant would become the lead emitter in 2009.
He says the change is due to China's astonishing economic growth which, in 2006 and 2007, has surpassed even the Chinese government's predictions. Since 2006, the Chinese gross domestic product has grown 11%, says Birol. China's official aim, set out in its 11th Five-Year Plan, covering 2006 to 2010, is to grow at 7.5% per year.
"All these numbers point in one direction," Birol told New Scientist. "The very next international architecture which will address climate change issues must undertake bold initiatives to bring China and India onboard."
Political pressure
However, Gao Guangsheng, head of China's Office of the National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, said on Wednesday that Birol's prediction did not have a concrete statistical basis.
"For some international organisations to reach the conclusion that China's carbon dioxide emissions are about to surpass the United States' is not only irresponsible, but is also being used to apply pressure on the Chinese government," he told reporters at the Oriental Morning Post.
China and India have both ratified the Kyoto protocol, which came into effect on 16 February 2005 (see Kyoto protocol gets the green light). But, being developing countries, they are not bound by it to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. Their commitments are simply to deliver accounts of their emissions to the United Nations.
Post-Kyoto deal
The Kyoto Protocol will expire in 2012 and difficult negotiations are underway for a post-2012 protocol. Birol and many others have underlined the importance of ensuring the next protocol includes incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions.
Countries such as China, India, Brazil, New Mexico and South Africa have low per capita emissions in comparison to developed countries (see graph, right). But their booming economic growth and - in the case of China and India - record-breaking populations mean their overall emissions are fast taking centre-stage on the world stage of climate negotiations.
The US and Australia have repeatedly cited these unregulated emissions when explaining why they refuse to ratify the Kyoto protocol. On the other hand, the governments of developing countries argue that capping their emissions would sacrifice their nation's development.
Green energy
Birol says that in order to bring China and India onboard with a post-2012 climate treaty, negotiations must seek to provide these countries with incentives to reduce their emissions. These could include green energy technologies at preferential rates and financial incentives for environmental projects.
He adds that he would prioritise increasing energy efficiency: "Without this, we have no chance to be globally successful - whatever we do in OECD countries."
Official UN negotiations for a post-2012 climate resume in November 2007. A number of meetings between now and then will prepare the terrain. The UN Security Council has agreed to discuss climate change this month. And German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made climate change a priority at this year's G8 summit, in June 2007.
Two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in February and April 2007 have said that climate change is already happening and is most probably driven by human greenhouse gas emissions. |
